In the UK Prince Charles recently launched an outspoken assault on GM crops accusing unnamed ‘gigantic corporations of conducting a gigantic experiment with nature, and the whole of humanity, which has gone seriously wrong’.
His timely attack coincides with concerns about food shortages, the rising cost of food production and higher food prices. There is little doubt that the rising price of agricultural commodities is linked to soaring oil and energy prices – large-scale intensive crops rely on huge inputs of fossil energy in the form of pesticides, nitrate fertilisers, diesel and machinery. But other factors have also driven up the cost of food: as the global population grows demand is rising, particularly in India and China; grain stocks are at a historic low due to droughts in grain-producing areas of the world; and biofuels are competing with food for arable land.
All of this has encouraged more production. The EU has abandoned its compulsory programme to set aside land, and Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have increased production. Record wheat production is expected in 2008 which will bring prices down. Over the long-term we can expect prices to soar again. Some predict that by 2050 half of arable land in the world might no longer be suitable for production because of water shortages and climate change. By then the global population is expected to have grown from today’s 6.3 billion to 9 billion.
So it seems Prince Charles is right. Now is the time to talk about GM foods. Increases in crop yields are one of the main advantages of GM, and the confluence of social, commercial and technological forces is boosting the case for GM. As India and China grow richer, the world is likely to need much more food, just as arable land, water and energy become scarcer and more expensive. If genetically modified organisms (GMOs) fulfil their promise, they offer a way out of this bind, providing higher yields even with less water, energy and fertiliser.
Yet Europe has been far more resistant to the spread of GM than the rest of the world, but at what cost? As many large agricultural exporters – America, Argentina, Brazil, India and China – have adopted GMOs, it’s becoming expensive to avoid them. In addition to the benefits to farmers, there are the benefits to consumers to consider. Soya oil, for example, that through genetic manipulation is claimed to taste better, be healthier and produces no trans-fats during cooking.
Could such an innovation even persuade sceptical Europeans? If future products offer things the consumer wants, such as healthier food, and address problems such as obesity and climate change, then GMOs may yet have their day in Europe. |
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